Flo’s Forecast: The Big Show – Finals Preview

Two teams left standing in each division. Montreal’s Finest and Top Guns in A; Star City and The Incredibles in B.

Looking at the teams playing in the finals and how things have played out this season, there are clear favourites in both divisions in Montreal’s Finest and Star City. However, it’s far from a sure thing for either squad. As we’ve already seen these playoffs, any team can beat any team any given week.

Quick shoutout to The Incredibles and Gladiateurs for making look smart with their epic one-point wins over defending champs Grip N Rip and undefeated STL respectively in the quarterfinals.

In the Division B semis, we saw Star City erase a 1-point halftime deficit and explode to 32 second half points en route to a 52-40 victory over the pesky Glads. The score is a little misleading as there were defenses on the field, and they also made some stops. However, many quick scores led to more possessions on both sides. After an opening drive punt, Dan Lazzara was quick to make mince meat out of the Alex Nadeau-Piuze-less Glads’ defense tossing eight touchdowns. His favourite target was unstoppable as Zach Jauniaux scored four times on four receptions for 65 yards. This game just went to show how vital Nadeau-Piuze is to the Glads. I would argue he’s more important to that team than any other non-quarterback in division B. The other division B semifinal saw The Incredibles win their second straight overtime thriller over the Dans. This one ended up being a true barn barner as both quarterbacks were on fire combining for 13 touchdown passes. It was Joey Taylor who made the big mistake though when a streaking Vince Nardone picked him off and ran it back for 6 to swing the momentum. Tied at 46, the game headed to overtime and The Incredibles outlasted the Dans 2-1 on conversions.

In Division A, after a lot of speculation that All Black Everything would only field a 5-man roster, that ended up not being the case as Alex Apostolakis ended up playing through concussion symptoms to help his team win. Unfortunately for him and his boys, ABE lost a heartbreaker 27-26 against their kryptonite Top Guns. For the third time this season, Top Guns got the best of ABE limiting quarterback of the year Marco Masciotra to less than 30 points for the second straight time. In the other game, Montreal’s Finest continued the sheer dominance over the Rainmakers, beating them for the third time this season. Alex Pilon had a heck of a game for the Rainmakers scoring four times but if one quarterback was to make a mistake between Kevin Wyeth and Ryan Kastner, you would probably put all your bets on Kastner. And that’s not to take anything away from him as he had a great game throwing the ball but Wyeth is Wyeth. Kastner did make that one mistake and that one interception to Pat Chenard was game, set and match for the boys in red. It’s an unfortunate end to a disappointing season for this team that just seemingly stays one step behind the top competition.

 

ROAD TO THE FINALS

Montreal’s Finest:

W vs. Rainmakers 38-33

 

Top Guns:

W vs. All Black Everything 27-26

 

Star City:

W vs. Kings 45-40

W vs. Gladiateurs 52-40

 

The Incredibles:

W vs. Fun Boys 41-38

W vs. Grip N Rip 33-32 (OT)

W vs. 2HD 48-47 (OT)

 

DIVISION A FINALS PREVIEW

Montreal’s Finest (9-2) vs. Top Guns (7-4)

Previous Matchups:

Week 1: 50-20 Montreal’s Finest

Week 6: 39-25 Montreal’s Finest

The difference between these teams’ respective records are the two games they played against one another, which the Finest won comfortably both times.

If anything is to be made from those two previous games, it’s that it might be a mental block for Paul Lapierre and his team going in with the mentality that they can’t beat the Finest. But I really don’t think that’s the case. It seems as though that second loss to the Finest lit a fire under the Top Guns as they got hot after that winning their last four games and making it five in a row with their playoff win over ABE. This is a team playing great ball right now, especially defensively, and they’ve got all the confidence in the world that they can get the job done on Championship Sunday.

Montreal’s Finest have gone about their business quietly this season putting up W’s in a season filled with roster turnover. While they may not be as fiery and talkative as Top Guns are, they make up for it with their flawless execution week in and week out. This is a team that obviously has been here many times before; they’re a dynasty. This is a team that has chemistry and plenty of savvy FPF vets, and of course the biggest x-factor in the league in quarterback Kevin Wyeth, who has made this transition seamless for the team.

 

Matchups to Watch:

Top Guns’ short defense vs. Wyeth’s triple slants:

We all know it’s coming. Nobody can stop it. Wyeth has the quickest release in the league and is able to throw no look passes on the money as well. This makes it extremely tough for a defense to defend quick, hard passes to either side. That being said, Top Guns has a good defense that has some very capable players ready to make plays at any given moment. Although Wyeth can pinpoint a deep ball right into his receiver’s hands, you can’t let him have the easy outs and slants. For Top Guns, it’ll be interesting to see how they’ve adjusted for this game from the last two times around because clearly whatever they were doing was not working. For Wyeth, he’ll keep doing what he usually does until the defense makes him look elsewhere. If Top Guns do elect to bite down and cheat towards the outs and slants, look for Wyeth to take some shots downfield testing the likes of Perry and Jamil Springer on the corners.

Rashawn Perry vs. Pat Chenard:

On both sides of the ball, this matchup will be fun to watch. Known commodity as a cornerback, Pat Chenard will have his hands full with rising star Rashawn Perry. Paul Lapierre’s chemistry with Perry is hot and cold and week-to-week, you don’t really know what to expect from this duo. However, this combination also has the potential of breaking out at any moment and in a game where Montreal’s Finest will surely key in to contain Jamil Springer and Jacques Void (or try), that should leave plenty of 1 on 1 opportunities for Lapierre to test Chenard if he so chooses. On the flip side, defensive player of the year Rashawn Perry will attempt to lift his team with a big interception, something he’s done on a regular basis this season.

Prediction:

I love upsets; it’s always fun to see a team prove the world wrong and win. Unfortunately, I just don’t see it here. Kevin Wyeth has been near perfect against the Top Guns defense this year. Paul Lapierre has had two of his worst outings of the season against the Montreal’s Finest defense. I think 33 is the magic number for Montreal’s Finest and I think they get there with strong play from their quarterback, backed by a big stop defensively in the red zone to regain possession of the FPF trophy.

Montreal’s Finest 39, Top Guns 32

 

DIVISION B FINALS PREVIEW

Star City (10-1-1) vs. The Incredibles (9-4)

Previous Matchups:

Week 1: N/A

Although these teams haven’t faced one another this season, both teams will be coming in with a boatload of confidence for this one. The Incredibles have been here before, and won. Star City hasn’t as a team, but the Sea Assassins core (Lazzara, Jauniaux, Blanchet and Casey) have also been to the finals once, but haven’t won.

While Star City’s offense simply scored quickly and often on both the Kings and Glads, their defense was left exposed as they were on the field a lot. As a result, both of Star City’s games were shootouts in which they never really were in danger of losing at the end.

For their part, The Incredibles won their three games by a total of a measly 5 points, their last two games needing overtime. Their season has been up and down, as has their quarterback’s play. There’s rarely a middle ground with Greg Stern. Either he has an awesome game or a terrible one, and The Incredibles usually live and die with his performance because of this.

 

Matchups to Watch:

Greg Stern vs. an angry Star City defense:

Star City’s defense must be sick to their stomachs looking at two 40’s put up against them in the last two weeks, just the second and third times this season they gave up 40 or more. They’ll look to throw the book at Greg Stern and force him into crucial turnovers. Tam Vilaydeth knows that Stern is a guy that if he gets hot early, you’re in big trouble, especially with the disgusting receiving corps he has to work with. However, Stern is coming off a near perfect outing against 2HD and will look to build off that in the championship game.

Aleksander Papich vs. Star City secondary:

Papich is a nightmare matchup. His speed, athleticism and freakish height are enough to keep opposing defenses up at night. Star City’s defense is filled with speed, but lacking in height as a whole, especially with Abdul Rahim ineligible to play. So who gets on Papich? Perhaps Jauniaux. I think that might be their best bet but even then, they’ll have to blanket him I think because if Stern puts the ball high and away, there’s no way Jauniaux will be able to keep him from catching the ball. It will be interesting if they choose to blanket Papich and open up lanes for other receivers. They can all hurt you The Incredibles can, so it’s really pick your poison for Tam Vilaydeth’s defense.

Prediction:

Speaking to Dan Lazzara earlier this week, he mentioned to me that it seemed like everyone around him had championships except for him and how much this game meant to him. He and his counterpart Stern have really elevated their games in the past few weeks and I see this game being a high-scoring one, especially considering how fast both offenses can score and how many points these defenses have given up as of late. So who is it going to be? Will it be everyone’s preseason favourite who coasted past most of their opponents or the inconsistent Incredibles who have caught fire in the playoffs? In a NE Patriots vs. NY Giants circa 2007 (minus the undefeated record), give me a repeat of that in this one. The Incredibles just seem like a team of destiny at this point as everything has gone their way when the game has been on the line. Make it three overtime games in a row for them as Greg Stern leads his troops to the promised land for the second time in a memorable playoff thriller.

Star City 38, The Incredibles 38 (2-1 The Incredibles in OT)

 

Best of luck to all four teams in the finals! It’s been a pleasure writing for you guys this season. Have a great winter layoff, stay in shape and see you back in January! If you want to reach me for any inquiries or to disagree with me, feel free to hit me up at [email protected] or DM me @JFloMusicMTL on Twitter.