A look ahead at Week 12 – Wild Card Round

It is finally here!

For those of you who have the chance, heck, who performed enough, to make it all the way here, congratulations are in order. This week, 16 of the 24 playoff teams will battle it out to remain alive and the wild-card round is bound to be riddled with upsets all across the board. I’m already excited and it’s not even Saturday yet.

One of the greatest things about FPF playoffs is that anything can happen. We’ve seen 12th seed upset 1st seeds before; we’ve seen some unbelievable finishes and some guys make plays we’d never believe. That’s the beauty of FPF; the format of games, the way it’s played out, allows for anything possible scenario to occur. May the best team win it all!

With the end of the regular season comes the end of certain segments, but I’ll try to maintain as many as possible because I know how you guys loved them. Since it’s the playoffs, I will preview every single game; there’s something for everyone now.

 

Also, this week, I got the very famous (for the wrong reasons) G.M. Kolethras to chime in and give me his predictions for the 8 playoff games as well as the score he predicts. A little rivalry between media members never killed anybody (except maybe GM’s job, but I’m still working on that).

 

Anyways,

 

 

Week 12 – Wild Card Round

 

Before diving into the main content, here’s a few headlines for you guys :

• I predict more upsets this week than next week
• I’m still sad Longhorns are on the outside looking in.
• Div4 has a lot of parity in the top 24.
• Any wild-card team making the championship game will have a 15-game season; talk about getting your money’s worth
• Both 12th seed might be some of the strongest teams out there; it’s a scary thought
• Make sure to give the podcast a listen if you haven’t already
• Coyotes’ loss costed them first place, but it could end up being a blessing in disguise; we’ll know soon enough.

 

 

Playoff Picture

 

Conf A	Team	PTS	W(P-F)	DIV	PA		Conf B	Team	PTS	W(P-F)	DIV	PA
1	6 Fast Guys Plus Ryan	17	8	[3-1-0]	263		1	Grip n Rip	16	8	[2-2-0]	227
2	Coyotes	16	8	[4-0-0]	215		2	Game Changers	16	8	[4-0-0]	216
3	Shmoney	16	8	[3-1-0]	232		3	Shamrocks	15	7	[4-0-0]	255
4	CREAM Team	14	7	[3-1-0]	282		4	Backyard Bullies	12	6	[3-1-0]	229
5	69ers	14	7	[4-0-0]	313		5	Maloudes	16	8	[3-1-0]	185
6	Recipe 4 Disaster	14	7	[3-1-0]	242		6	Two and a Half Dans	16	8	[4-0-0]	222
7	Crisp	14	7	[3-1-0]	311		7	Marco in the Middle	11	5	[3-1-0]	219
8	Punt Returners	13	6	[2-2-0]	186		8	Mustangs DG	11	5	[2-2-0]	285
9	Ghosts	11	5	[2-2-0]	310		9	Dragons	11	5	[1-2-1]	275
10	Team Ethnik	11	5	[1-3-0]	296		10	Lobster Dinner	10	5	[3-1-0]	261
11	ZOO	10	5	[3-1-0]	286		11	Show me Your TDs	10	4	[2-2-0]	287
12	Les Duck Dynasty	10	5	[3-1-0]	307		12	A-Squad	10	5	[1-3-0]	223

 

 

 

 

Previews

 

• 69ers (5th) vs Les Duck Dynasty (12th)

Previous matchup : 32-25 Les Duck Dynasty

Analysis : Last week, these two teams faced with Les Duck Dynasty’s season on the line, but not much for 69ers to lose. This week, we have a completely different scenario; the same encounter, yes, but a lot on the line for both teams. While FPF has seen his fair share of these improbable scenarios, seeing a team win twice in a row against the same opponent is very rare. 69ers are crafty and experienced, they might have kept some plays or even weapons hidden last week knowing they weren’t losing much with a loss to defeat LDD if they faced once again.

Although I’d give the edge to Paquette-Perreault in a pure QB matchup, Shea Harbour isn’t to be underestimated comes playoff times. Both receiver corps are very impressive, but very different. LDD relies a lot more on their speed and chemistry whereas 69ers rely on their experience and amazing route-running. This will come down to the wire once again and I expect nothing more but a fantastic matchup to finish in a heartbreaker.

GM’s analysis : With a matchup freshly in the books (with Les Duck Dynasty taking the game in a close 32-25) I’m sure that both teams are looking forward to this rematch. I think that LDD are finally starting to play up to their potential, and it’s going to be just as down to the wire as the last matchup was.

Key matchups : 69ers’ safety vs Paquette-Perreault’s deep ball.

My prediction : 37 – 33 Les Duck Dynasty

GM’s prediction : 27 – 20 Les Duck Dynasty

 

 

 

• Maloudes (5th) vs A-Squad (12th)

Previous matchup : 30-18 Maloudes

Analysis : Last time these two teams faced, Maloudes’ defensive backs were too much to handle for Kevin Lubin’s offense and ended up being the difference maker. After last week’s performance, A-Squad showed FPF Nation they could run the show and shouldn’t be underestimated when they are back against the wall. Their defense seems to be the key to their team and it’ll come down to which offense can find ways to score points.

Both defenses have amazing talent and I doubt any mismatches could be exploited. I foresee to matchup to come down to the 2nd interception as both QBs will throw at least one by the end of the night. Will Paquette be the X-Factor once more or will another Maloude player come in and shines? Both teams will have to keep their egos in-check as either team will do whatever they have to get the win. Although it’ll get chirpy, I expect both teams to keep their composure late down the stretch and give us a heck of a show.

GM’s analysis : Their previous meeting, Maloudes won decidedly with a score of 30-18. A-Squad are a talented group, but les Maloudes seem to have them figured out. Kevin Lubin is going to have to be perfect going toe-to-toe with Anthony Beauchamp-Frezza, because the Maloudes defense will be VERY unforgiving at the first mistake.

Key matchups : Vincent Morissette’s deep threat vs A-Squad’s cornerbacks.

My prediction : 30 – 26 Maloudes

GM’s prediction : 33 – 26 Maloudes

 

 

 

• Two and a half Dans (6th) vs Show me your TDs (11th)

Previous matchup : N/A

Analysis : Two and a half Dans or as I like to call them recently, The Infamous Dans, keep flying under most team’s radar and it keeps biting them back in the arse. Last week’s obliteration of Backyard Bullies was a pretty strong proof of that. I do not expect Show me your TDs to take the Dans lightly and they’ll come in with a gameplan detailed for them. The Dans’ offense is very unorthodox and not many can actually face them effectively, but I believe SMYTDs do have the personnel to be that team that could take them down.

Mike Addona’s offense has had some serious up and downs recently and it’ll have to hit an all-time high because you will not win playoff games in D4 with 2-3 touchdowns per game. Last week’s bump in the road against Les Affreux has them in a tough spot, but they can bounce back and the Dans are the first enemy on the road to the championship. This game will come down to who can adjust better to their opponents a lot more than we’d expect it to be.

GM’s analysis: Two and a Half Dans vs. Show Me Your TDs: With no previous matchup, this matchup is especially tough to go on. However, I feel like the Dans’ play style will frustrate and fluster Show Me Your TDs, and that’s when the errors will happen. Unlike the potential of a lot of the other games this round, this one will be a low-scoring affair

Key matchups : SMYTD’s rusher vs Joey Taylor

My prediction : 34 – 19 Two and a half Dans

GM’s prediction : 18 -13 Two and a half Dans

 

 

 

• Recipe 4 Disaster (6th) vs ZOO (11th)

Previous matchup : N/A

Analysis : Talking about great matchup, this one is fantastic. Both style of play are different from one another, but works well against each other. ZOO’s slow and steady offense could make R4D’s defense head ache while Applebaum’s trickeries could end up being that factor ZOO can’t account for. Knowing both QBs have thrown 44 INTs this season (combined), this game will not come down to the first interception, but rather who can control it better.

ZOO’s strength relies on adjustments and clock management. As soon as they returned to it, their glory came back. This week is no different. In a 44 minute matchup, R4D will be crafty enough to carve ZOO apart, so Frank Kaye needs to help his defense out and give fewer opportunities to Applebaum’s offense to do so even if that costs him a few himself. We might end up with a game where 4 or 5 interceptions are thrown and I believe it’ll all be played in the second half as whatever deficit the first half brings; it’ll be nullified quickly in the second half.

GM’s analysis : Recipe 4 Disaster vs. ZOO: Of all the matchups, this has to be one of two teams with a similar character and build. With that in mind, it might just come down to the battle of Youth vs. Experience… which means that I’m very tempted to side with ZOO. This is for sure going to be a close match, and is definitely the one I`m not sure about.

Key matchups : Ryan Aridi (offense trickery and rushing) vs ZOO

My prediction : 33 – 27 Recipe 4 Disaster

GM’s prediction : 38 – 36 ZOO

 

 

 

• Crisp (7th) vs Team Ethnik (10th)

Previous matchup : N/A

Analysis : Seeing Crisp as the 7th seed is a bit of a shocker, yes, but this could end up being the matchup nightmare Team Ethnik feared coming in the playoffs. With the 10th seed, Garofalo felt pretty good coming in the playoffs to face a steady offense with a gritty defense that he’ll be able to carve and put up points against. Knowing Crisp’ style of play, this might just be the exact opposite. If you want to go points for points against Morsink’s offense, you’ll end up on the losing side of the ball when the final whistle blows.

This game will come down to time management and possessions. Can Team Ethnik sneak an extra possession per half with strong clock management or will they try to go toe-to-toe with Morsink’s offense? I believe the answer to this question will also reveal the winner of Saturday’s matchup. Without taking anything away from Garofalo’s offense, I believe Crisp is too loaded to be restrained to 4-5 TDs if they have enough possessions. This is a different type of beast and it has to be tamed differently!

GM’s analysis : As usual, I`m looking to plead the fifth on talking about my team.

Key matchups : Liam Mahoney vs Team Ethnik’s defensive backs.

My prediction : 41 – 25 Crisp

GM’s prediction : N/A

 

 

 

• Marco in the Middle (7th) vs Lobster Dinner (10th)

Previous matchup : N/A

Analysis : I’ve mentioned yesterday how this ends up a pretty bad matchup for both teams. The teams’ matchup really well against one another and this proves to be a disadvantage for both teams. Lobster Dinner’s offense is a really balanced offense without one guy standing out of the crowd whereas Marco in the Middle’s defense is good when it’s able to shutdown one playmaker and force the QB to go to his 2nd or 3rd reads.

I believe the pressure really will come down to the offenses Saturday night and who can drive the ball into the end-zone. Moe asked me if the first team to make it to 30 points will win and I’ll say it again; yes. I believe this to be one of those games where the defense will be good on both sides and it’ll come down to which QB can get points on the board without being forced to punt and I believe Bishara to be the man Saturday night.

GM’s analysis : Just like Simon, I was surprised to see Lobster Dinner sneak into the playoffs. Not because of their roster, but rather because of how much they were playing under their potential. Marco in the Middle have a good mix of raw skill and emerging talent as well, and it`s difficult to side against them.

Key matchups : Gordon Hogan’s defensive side vs Lobster Dinner’s receivers.

My prediction : 27 – 19 Marco in the Middle

GM’s prediction : 24 – 12 Marco in the Middle

 

 

 

• Punt Returners (8th) vs Ghosts (9th)

Previous matchup : N/A

Analysis : Ghosts have had some serious up and downs this season, but one thing’s for sure, when Alexis Gaumont is on, this offense is on fire, literally. That being said, Ghosts, on a good night, are a force to be reckoned with and not everyone could take them out. I think this ends up being a very tough matchup for the Punt Returners who run a methodological offense rather than an explosive one. They’ll have to count the possessions and reduce Gaumont’s effectiveness if they want to stay in this game. Punt Returners will not be scoring 40 points on their opponents this late in the season, but Ghosts certainly could.

That being said, Punt Returners have a lot of FPF experience and they are gritty enough not to let their adversary get away with it easily. I expect Punt Returners to put up a great fight in the first half and give headaches to the Ghosts, but a few mistakes in the second half with Ghosts’ adjusting late in this game will be the X-Factor and we’ll see how strong Ghosts can really be in the playoffs this year.

GM’s analysis : Punt Returners vs. Ghosts: Another game where the two teams have not matched up. Punt Returners seem to be a bit of an enigma, playing up to their competition as well as playing down to it. Ghosts, while being the weaker seed in this matchup are however the more consistent of the two. When it does come down to it, though, the experience that Punt Returners possess will springboard them into the next round.

Key matchups : David Faucher vs Alexis Gaumont

My prediction : 39 – 29 Ghosts

GM’s prediction : 34 – 20 Punt Returners

 

 

 

• Mustangs DG (8th) vs Dragons (9th)

Previous matchup : N/A

Analysis : This woulda’ve been a great matchup with Mustangs DG being at full strength. Both teams matchup greatly; Dragons’ defensive depth against Mustangs’ deep threats in the Boulard brothers. Simon Vallée has a strong arm and he’s on-point with his receivers. Their chemistry is key to their offense and it really revolves around those 3 guys. Mustangs don’t have the greatest defense, but they can shut down a guy or two which is basically what Dragons are all about; if you can shutdown JF Fortier Poulin and Maxime Côté, you’d really reduce Simon Dagenais’ effectiveness and force a few turnovers.

That being said, with Simon Vallée’s absence, this offense simply is not the same. The receivers lose their edge due to chemistry, the backup QB might not have the arm to throw the long ball the way Vallée did and this might just be the game changing factor in week 12. With Vallée present, Mustangs’ offense is a serious threat due to the effectiveness of the 40-yrd bombs. Without him, can they really replicate the same threat ? Time will tell.

GM’s analysis : These two teams have a lot of familiarity with each other but have not played each other this season. However, with the rumored injury of Simon Vallee, and the fact that the Mustangs are unable to play weekend games, it’s going to be an uphill battle for them against the Dragons…if they play at all.

Key matchups : Boulard brothers vs Dragons’ Cornerbacks

My prediction : 33 – 19 Dragons

GM’s prediction : 0 – 30 Dragons

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is it for Saturday’s version of my article. I hope you enjoyed it. If you didn’t, you can always blame G.M. Kolethras for having a real life or the person responsible for hiring me in the first place. I can always be reached on Twitter @DagenaisFPF like many of you have done in the past. Our email also works: [email protected] but Twitter is the new era, get with the times. I think it’s fair to say I gave GM Kolethras another whooping at predicting games. I’m getting pretty good at this, beware!